In my Inbox this morning, this, from Henry. So…he had set it to release after his death, presumably to all his subscribers.
This memo was sent to Prime Minister Gordon Brown. It is dated August 12 2007. I am not naming the writer.
There is no material difference between the provisions in the Constitutional Treaty, which the Government made subject to approval in a referendum, and those in the Lisbon Treaty. (A UK referendum on the Constitutional Treaty was avoided when the French rejected it in May 2005.)
We expect this to be the conclusion the Parliamentary Scrutiny Committee, which will report in October.
We advise the Government to consider carefully whether or not a referendum should be held on the Lisbon Treaty. The press is already saying that a referendum was “promised” by Tony Blair while he was in office.
Recent polls show that a majority of Labour supporters favour a referendum.
The opposition is now likely to commit to a referendum on EU membership should they return to office. It appears from opinion polls that this has considerable and continuing popular support. Indeed, on present evidence, a significant proportion of the electorate would vote to leave the EU.
Is this therefore not a moment of opportunity when your government, committed, as it is, to continuing EU membership, should act? The fundamental issues of our membership have simply never been explored in a public debate. Without open discussion, there will be no chance to refresh public opinion, currently on a negative trend.
A referendum on the Lisbon Treaty does not threaten our continued membership of the EU.
The Lisbon Treaty may not breach our constitution, but it advances European integration at a geopolitical level.
The foreign policy position should emphasise Europe’s growing political influence both as the world’s largest single market and as a defender of shared values.
The domestic position should emphasise the growing prosperity of the union, offering consumer benefits not just in conventional “goods” but in ease of travel, opportunities to work overseas, etc.
Electorally, there is a potential advantage here. Young voters, who are probably neutral on EU membership but have never known anything else, could be moved to a more positive position, simply by engaging with the issue. “Voices” need to be found to speak for the younger membership.
I see. This minute was written after Henry’s retirement. Perhaps he still had access to people in his department. Perhaps it was leaked to him by a former colleague but not for publication. Either way, Henry has leaked it, breached the code of secrecy which binds civil servants even into their retirement.
This is his posthumous protest. Henry cared deeply about the European project. It had even, perhaps, occupied most of his working life.
I feel sad for Henry. It’s true that the memo reveals a massive political failure. I don’t know who he has sent it to. But I doubt if it will get any coverage.