Henry is blogging about the referendum campaign to decide if the UK remains in the European Union.

“I have said it before: democracy prevents a small group from becoming a permanent caste or political dynasty. This is so important that it far outweighs its weaknesses.

But the day to day business of managing foreign policy is invisible to the vast majority of the people, too remote, too abstract.  In fact, most really significant changes in the life of a country were driven by catastrophic events. The European Union, for instance, is the product of an epochal war.

If there comes a point  when the “parties” cannot resolve a foreign policy issue, when, for instance, governing parties are split, this is the catalyst for a kind of crisis.

A change of direction in a nation’s travel is being put to the people. But they have given little thought to the EU: it has played almost no part in their political choices at election time. Therefore the two campaigns will struggle to get some leverage. I expect they will resort to populist approaches.”

After I read this, I had a short correspondence with Henry. I asked him if he thought the analysis he used to predict the outcome of the Scottish referendum would be helpful.

Henry said: “In my view, that was a domestic issue, not a foreign policy issue – and besides I got it wrong. But here, for what it’s worth, are my thoughts.

Bear in mind that  Myers-Briggs is usually used to determine where people will function best in, how they will fit into, a working group. This does not translate directly into how they see their country, even though nationality is a key part of our personal identity. The outcome of the referendum will be largely determined by Stabilisers, the largest group. The median age of the population is about 45. The younger part of our population, born after our entry, is smaller because everyone under 18 has no vote. Our future is therefore in the hands of older Stabilisers!

We know too little about this. But nearly every opinion poll since in middle 1990’s has come up with a majority for leaving the EU.”

Henry tells me that the secretary of the local Women’s Institute has asked him to speak to them.

I decided to do a little survey.